FW2175R
Since founded in 1998, Fenwei has been dedicating to the research of factors influential in coal and coke supply-demand and prices dynamics. Starting from supply-demand model in 2008 to present big data-based forecast model, Fenwei has been able to predict not only the future trend of coal price but also its range of change, with improving accuracy during this process.
Duration
About $-?$-?
模型介紹
Thermal Coal: Bohai-rim 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal on FOB basis
Forecasts are made with effective data selected from a series of data covering main production areas, railway platforms, ports, import and export, freight rates, downstream sectors and international markets sourced from Fenwei internal data, customs authorities, statistical bureaus, industry associations and port operators. To create greater value for market players, Fenwei makes price forecast for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal traded at Bohai-rim ports through big data-based price forecast model.
Fenwei builds fitting modeling on all datasets and price change of 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal traded at Bohai-rim ports. Based on average error ratio between forecast and actual price change, Fenwei finds the regression modeling of price forecast for next 42 days has the highest accuracy and the average error ratio is the lowest。
In?2020,?on?the?basis?of?the?42day?model?methodology,?the?team?screened?data?with?a?relatively?short?period?of?impact?on?price?changes?to?form?a?21day?price?forecast?model.?The?combination?of?the?two?models?can?help?control?certain?risk?in?the?forecast?results?of?the?42day?model,?thus?further?enhance?the?scientificity?of?coal?and?coke?price?trend?prediction.