大數(shù)據(jù)煉焦煤預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告
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Introduction
Since founded in 1998, Fenwei has been dedicating to the research of factors influential in coal and coke supply-demand and prices dynamics. Starting from supply-demand model in 2008 to present big data-based forecast model, Fenwei has been able to predict not only the future trend of coal price but also its range of change, with improving accuracy during this process.
Introduction
Coking Coal: Main production area low-sulfur coking coal on ex-washplant basis
Forecasts are made with effective data selected from a series of data covering main production areas, railway platforms, ports, import and export, freight rates, downstream sectors and international markets sourced from Fenwei internal data, customs authorities, statistical bureaus, industry associations and port operators.
Fenwei builds fitting modeling on all datasets and price change. Based on average error ratio between forecast and actual price change, Fenwei finds the regression modeling of price forecast for next 42 days has the highest accuracy and the average error ratio is the lowest。
In?2020,?on?the?basis?of?the?42day?model?methodology,?the?team?screened?data?with?a?relatively?short?period?of?impact?on?price?changes?to?form?a?21day?price?forecast?model.?The?combination?of?the?two?models?can?help?control?certain?risk?in?the?forecast?results?of?the?42day?model,?thus?further?enhance?the?scientificity?of?coal?and?coke?price?trend?prediction.