大數(shù)據(jù)焦炭價(jià)格預(yù)測報(bào)告
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Language: chinese
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Introduction
Currently, market participants and observers rely mainly on analysis of various supply-demand changes and research experience to judge the rough trend of future coal market. Subjective factors dominate factors in question.In years before 2017, spot thermal coal prices changed less violently at Bohai-rim ports, with one to two fluctuations each year. But in 2017, three to four big price changes occurred, each ranging 80-140 yuan/t. Such a much faster and deeper rate of change has made it hard for market participants and observers to grasp future market trends.
Introduction
Since founded in 1998, Fenwei has been dedicating to the research of factors influential in coal and coke supply-demand and prices dynamics. Starting from supply-demand model in 2008 to present big data-based forecast model, Fenwei has been able to predict not only the future trend of coal price but also its range of change, with improving accuracy during this process.
Fenwei builds fitting modeling on all datasets and price change of 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal traded at Bohai-rim ports. Based on average error ratio between forecast and actual price change, Fenwei finds the regression modeling of price forecast for next 42 days has the highest accuracy and the average error ratio is the lowest。
In?2020,?on?the?basis?of?the?42day?model?methodology,?the?team?screened?data?with?a?relatively?short?period?of?impact?on?price?changes?to?form?a?21day?price?forecast?model.?The?combination?of?the?two?models?can?help?control?certain?risk?in?the?forecast?results?of?the?42day?model,?thus?further?enhance?the?scientificity?of?coal?and?coke?price?trend?prediction.